Live Point Simulator • Arthur Ashe Stadium
Set 1 | 3-3 (30-30)
Shelton cranks a 141 mph slice serve out wide. Alcaraz lunges and blocks the return deep into the ad-court corner.
Momentum & Probability Trajectory Across 5 Sets
Shows calculated win likelihood by set progression based on fatigue, serve degradation, and Alcaraz's return adaptations over 3+ hours.
Matchup Intelligence Breakdown
| Metric | Ben Shelton | Carlos Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Ace / Service Winner Expectancy | 18 - 24 | 6 - 9 |
| First Serve Points Won (%) | 76.2% | 72.4% |
| Second Serve Vulnerability (% Lost) | 48.5% | 39.1% |
| Break Point Conversion Chance | 31.4% | 44.8% |
| Rallies 9+ Shots Win % | 36.0% | 64.0% |