Sihanoukville Economic Recovery & Fraud Crackdown Impact Simulator

Policy Matrix Controls

ACTIVE RECOVERY

Strategic Presets

Crackdown Intensity 85%

Police operations, compound raids, expulsion of cyber-fraud operations and illicit syndicates.

SEZ Tax & Duty Incentives 70%

Corporate income tax holidays, tariff exemptions to attract legitimate export manufacturing.

Infrastructure & Tower Absorption 55%

Government subsidies, legal resolution of unfinished structural shells and utility connections.

FDI Stabilization Grants 40%

Sovereign guarantees and credit facility guarantees for institutional hospitality & logistics.

Economic Stability Index

71.0 / 100

Moderate-High Resilience

Unresolved Abandoned Towers

114 of 360

246 absorbed / completed

GDP Growth (Year 3)

4.2 % YoY

Trajectory: Legitimate Real Economy

Tourism Recovery Index

68.5 %

Baseline vs. 2019 pre-scam peak

Formal Employment Rate

74.2 %

Replaced casino/scam compound workforce

5-Year Structural Transition Trajectory

GDP Growth (%)

Formal Employment (%)

Tourism Index (%)

Ghost Tower Clearance Status

68.3% Cleared

Absorbed / Repurposed: 246 Unfinished Shells: 114

Transition Factor	Current Value	Impact Risk
Illicit Capital Outflow	-$1.42B / yr	Severe Liquidity Shock
SEZ Factory Inflow	+$680M / yr	Healthy Diversification
Hotel Occupancy Yield	54.2%	Gradual Normalization

Macroeconomic Transition Assessment

Under the representative calibration (Crackdown Intensity: 85%, SEZ Incentives: 70%, Infrastructure: 55%, FDI Stabilization: 40%), Sihanoukville faces an initial contraction from immediate scam compound expulsion, but builds a sustainable legal economic foundation by Year 3. With 246 of the 360 unfinished towers repurposed into legal warehousing, standard hospitality, and light manufacturing, formal employment stabilizes at 74.2%, and regional GDP expands at 4.2% annually.