Smoking Cessation Mortality Risk Curve Simulator

Epidemiological Cohort Survival & Hazard Decay Engine (Jha et al. / Doll et al.)

Validation Grounded

Intervention Controls

Excess Risk Avoided
91.4%
vs. Continuous Smoker
Life Expectancy Restored
+9.2 yrs
out of ~10.0 lost
70yo Survival (Quitter)
80.2%
Smoker: 58.0% | Never: 82.0%
80yo Survival (Quitter)
66.1%
Smoker: 38.0% | Never: 70.0%

Grounded in landmark cohort findings: Jha et al. (NEJM 2013; 368:341-350) & Doll et al. (BMJ 2004; 328:1519). Quitting prior to age 40 reduces excess mortality risk by ~90% and recaptures ~9-10 years of life.

Survival Trajectories (Ages 25 to 85)

Never Smoker
Quitter (Selected Age: 38)
Quitter at 50
Continuous Smoker

Actuarial Milestone Probabilities

Cohort Surv to 70 Surv to 75 Surv to 80 Life Exp. (yr) Excess Risk Recaptured
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