Interactive Bayes Table
Hypothesis H: "Player A (Messi) has the higher true goals-per-90 rate." Evidence E: "Player A outscores Player B over the next 10 matches." Edit any cell; the posterior updates instantly.
| Quantity | Symbol | Value (0-1) |
|---|---|---|
| Prior belief H is true | P(H) | |
| Chance of E if H true | P(E|H) | |
| Chance of E if H false | P(E|¬H) |
Posterior
P(H|E) = 0.591
Distribution Simulator: goals per 90 minutes
Player A (Messi, sample)Player B (Ronaldo, sample)
What the sample can actually support
P(A's sample mean beats B's) ≈ -
Hypothetical: means and variance here are adjustable illustrations, not career records.
Verified fact: both players have exceeded 700 career club goals; single-season output for each has varied by large margins year to year, which is exactly why variance matters.
Assumptions Quiz
Score: 0 / 3