Ending Balance
Post-Week 1
$272.73
From initial $1,000.00 bankroll
Net Loss
Realized Drawdown
$727.27
Calculated at -110 standard spread
ROI Percentage
Staked Yield
-72.73%
On $1,000.00 total action
Total Staked
10 Wagers
$1,000
100% of original roll exposed
Variance Risk Level
Model Diagnostic
High Volatility / Severe Drawdown
Ruin risk 84.6% without stake cut
Wager & Roll Simulator
Adjust parameters
$1,000
10.0% of roll
10
8 losses (20% win rate)
52.38% implied
Bankroll Trajectory vs. Expected Value (EV)
Simulated sequence of Week 1 wagers vs neutral 50/50 EV
Kelly Sizing & Recovery Plan
Week 2 Blueprint
Optimal Half-Kelly Unit
Recommended
With remaining balance of $272.73, avoid "chasing losses". Re-anchor to a disciplined 1.5% - 2.5% unit size.
Recommended Next Wager:
$5.45
Risk of Ruin Under Flat $100 Staking
Dangerous
Continuing to bet $100 per game (36.7% of remaining roll) leaves you only 2.7 bets before total balance liquidation (0 funds).
Bets Until Zero:
2.7 Losses
Break-Even Rebound Requirement
Math Reality
To recoup the $727.27 deficit, your surviving bankroll must grow by +266.7%. This requires patient unit compounding, not a multi-leg desperation parlay.
Simulated Wager Ledger
| # | Odds | Risk | Result | Net Impact | Balance |
|---|
Sportsbook Bankroll Variance Analysis Completed
Simulated 10 wagers resulting in 8 losses (20.0% win rate). Starting with $1,000.00, the bettor suffered a $727.27 net loss, finishing at $272.73 (-72.73% ROI). Classified as High Volatility / Severe Drawdown.