When Case Keenum stepped under center after a 1,009-day drought, winning required decisive pre-snap coverage diagnostics, protecting the football, and targeting soft spots between hook zones rather than forcing contested jump balls.
Cover 2: 2-deep safeties vacate the middle honey-hole. Cover 3: 1 single-high safety invites intermediate seams and outside comebacks. Cover 0 Blitz: Empty middle, deliver instantly to hot slants.
Expected Points Added (EPA) tracks how each throw alters win probability relative to down, distance, field position, and clock. Checkdowns on 1st down generate positive EPA; sacks are lethal drive-killers.
The simulator calculates real-time defensive pass rush pressure based on the selected defensive front (Cover 0 sends 5+ rushers with a fast 2.0s pocket; Cover 4 drops 7 into coverage giving 3.4s). Throws compute vector arrival times against cornerback and safety zone breaks. If a throw crosses a defender's active zone when trailing or leading incorrectly, defensive break speed dictates deflections or interceptions.