Venture Survival Framework

Startup Failure Risk & Runway Diagnostic Workbench

Empirical mortality modeling based on post-mortem research, distribution bottlenecks, and cash velocity.

Venture Inputs & Levers Adjust sliders to evaluate survival
$45,000
Monthly cash outflow for payroll, infrastructure, and operations.
$270,000
Liquid uncommitted bank balance available today.
1 channel
Repeatable, scalable channels acquiring customers profitably (Thiel's Rule).
80% Tech
% time on code/refactoring vs talking to customers & validating problems.
4 / 5
Addressable market depth and user willingness to pay.
7 / 10
Founder alignment, low interpersonal friction, and velocity.
Test Corrective Interventions
Diagnostic Assessment Live Synchronized
Runway Duration
6.0 months
Critical Window (< 9 mo)
Survival Probability
22.0 %
High Mortality Zone
Primary Predicted Failure Mode
Cash Exhaustion & Zero Distribution
Cash Depletion Velocity 82%
Distribution Channel Deficit 75%
Tech vs Customer Distortion 80%
Market & Team Friction 34%
Prescribed Founder Action
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