Stocktwits LIVE Rate Bets & Options Volatility Simulator

Rate Expectations Matrix Normalized 100%

Scenarios:

25bps Rate Cut Probability: 62%

50bps Rate Cut Probability: 28%

Pause / Hold Probability: 10%

CPI Inflation Print State

Tradier Implied Volatility Index (IV%): 21.4%

Days to FOMC Decision: 2 days

Live Market Impact & CME Odds REAL-TIME SIM

Dominant Scenario

25bps Rate Cut (62% FedWatch Odds)

Expected S&P 500 Move

±1.84%

Options Straddle Cost (At-the-Money)

$142.50 per contract

Market Chaos Index

Moderate (Volatility premium elevated)

Implied Move Curve CME FedWatch Shift Distribution

Trader Positioning Summary

Markets pricing steady 25bp easing with defensive options positioning into CPI release.