Grounding: @MLB Pete Crow-Armstrong 38 SB & MLB-leading 116 R

Baserunning Impact & Speed-to-Run Simulator

Simulate the exact millisecond physics of stolen bases—runner sprint speed, jump reaction, pitcher slide step, and catcher pop time—and calculate how stolen bases directly generate runs (wSB and RE24 Run Expectancy).

Scouting & Physics Setup

Player Preset Archetype

Runner Sprint Speed (ft/s) 30.1 ft/s

Statcast elite is >30.0 ft/s. League avg is 27.0 ft/s.

Primary Lead Distance 11.8 ft

Distance off 1st base on pitcher's first movement.

Runner Jump Reaction Delay 0.32 s

Pitcher Delivery / Time-to-Plate 1.28 s

Standard slide-step is ~1.20s–1.30s; slow delivery >1.40s.

Catcher Pop Time (to 2B) 1.94 s

MLB Gold Glove pop time is <1.88s; avg is ~1.98s. Game Base-Out State (Run Expectancy)

SIMULATION READY +0.14 s (SAFE)

RE24 RUN EXPECTANCY IMPACT +0.16 runs

Runner Time (to 2B)

3.08 s

Battery Time (Pitch+Pop)

3.22 s

Projected Success Rate

83.4%

Season wSB Run Value

+4.82 runs

Pete Crow-Armstrong model loaded. Tap 'Simulate Steal Attempt' to animate.

The Sabermetric Mechanics of Baserunning Runs

When Pete Crow-Armstrong swipes his 38th bag and crosses home for run No. 116, the runs aren't coincidence—they are the empirical outcome of changing base-out states.

RE24 Run Expectancy: Moving from 1st to 2nd with 1 out increases expected runs in the inning from 0.51 to 0.67 (+0.16 runs). Getting caught drops it to 0.22 runs with 2 outs (-0.29 runs).
Break-Even Threshold: Because a caught stealing costs twice as much run expectancy as a successful steal gains, a runner must succeed at least ~72% to 75% of the time to generate net positive runs.
wSB (Weighted Stolen Base Runs): Calculated as wSB = (SB × 0.20) - (CS × 0.42), accounting for league run environment.

The 3.2-Second Stopwatch Window

Every steal of second base is decided in a brutal 3.20-second window between pitch initiation and ball-in-glove at second:

Pitcher Time to Plate: 1.15s–1.40s. Quick slide-steps shave 0.15s, directly taking away the runner's cushion.
Catcher Pop Time: 1.80s–2.05s. Measures the time from pitch hitting catcher's mitt to shortstop catching the relay tag.
Runner Physics: With 90 ft between bases, an 11.8 ft primary lead leaves 78.2 ft. An elite 30.1 ft/s runner with a 0.32s jump reaches second in ~3.08 seconds, sliding safely with 140ms to spare.

How does Pete Crow-Armstrong's 38 SB drive MLB's #1 Run Total (116 Runs)?

A stolen base removes double-play vulnerability and puts the runner immediately in scoring position. From second base, MLB runners score on 61% of singles (compared to just 27% from first). Combined with elite sprint speed (30.1 ft/s) that allows first-to-third on hits and tagging on shallow fly balls, an aggressive baserunner converts routine base hits into runs at an outlier rate.

How does the simulator calculate throw trajectory and slide physics?

The canvas simulates two concurrent timelines: (1) Runner timeline: jump delay + acceleration curve up to top sprint speed across the remaining baseline. (2) Defense timeline: pitcher release to catcher home plate arrival + catcher pop transfer + aerodynamic throw across 127.28 ft (home to second base). The collision delta at second base determines safe/out margin.