DISRUPTION PARAMETERS
CTRL-v2.6
“American oil executives warned for months that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz was bound to cause a fuel crisis. Now, they say it is here.” — The Wall Street Journal
45 Days
1 Day
45d (WSJ Baseline)
180 Days
55% Capacity
0% (Full Choke)
55% (Tanker Reroute)
90% (Max Alternative)
SPR Emergency Release
2.5 mbpd
0.5 mbpd
2.5 mbpd (Standard)
5.0 mbpd (Max Pump)
DAILY FLOW ALLOCATION (21.0 mbpd Total)
■ Rerouted/Bypass
■ SPR Offset
■ Net Deficit
✓ Telemetry snapshot exported successfully
Crisis Severity Rating
Severe Fuel Crisis
Refinery stock buffer critical
Effective Net Deficit
6.95 mbpd
Net unsupplied maritime crude
Projected Brent Crude
$128.4
Spot surge + risk premium
Refinery Stock Depletion
34.2%
Global buffer drawn over 45 days
SUPPLY DEFICIT & BRENT CRUDE SPIKE TRAJECTORY
Dynamic multi-axis projection over modeled closure timeline
Brent Price ($/bbl)
Cumulative Deficit (M bbl)
Stock Depletion %
CHOKEPOINT OPERATIONAL BRIEFING
Modeling a 45-day complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz (21.0 mbpd base flow). With tanker diversion capacity via the Cape of Good Hope absorbing 55% of maritime volume and an emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of 2.5 mbpd, the global oil market faces an acute 6.95 mbpd net deficit. Cumulative lost supply reaches 312.8 million barrels, driving Brent crude to $128.4/bbl and depleting 34.2% of commercial refinery operating inventories.