Strait of Hormuz Transit & Shipping Impact Analyzer

Chokepoint Status CLOSED

Hormuz Blockade Enforcement

Per Tasnim News report via @DeItaone

SITUATION REPORT

Strait of Hormuz closed under Iran-Oman understanding; 16.3 Mbd net deficit creates severe global supply shock.

Logistics & Flow Parameters

Baseline Hormuz Flow 20.5 Mbd

Normal maritime transit capacity through Hormuz

Cape of Good Hope Reroute 4.2 Mbd

Pipelines (Petroline, ADCOP) + VLCC African detours

Pre-Shock Brent Base $74.50

Maritime Insurance & Freight

VLCC Daily Charter Rate $145,000

Spot charter rate for 2M barrel supertanker

War-Risk Premium 1.25%

Hull & machinery war risk insurance on vessel value

Rapid Preset Configurations

Net Deficit CRITICAL

16.3 Mbd

Baseline 20.5 - 4.2 rerouted

Projected Brent +46.0%

$ 108.75 /bbl

Shock expansion from $74.50

Freight Surge INDEX

3.42 x mult

VLCC $145k/d + 1.25% war risk

OECD Buffer Run SPR RUNWAY

42.5 days

Emergency reserve draw rate

Maritime Chokepoint Transit Schematic

Hormuz Blocked

Cape Detour

Supply Shock vs Price Escalation Curve

Projected Brent ($/bbl)

Operational Deficit & Shipping Metrics Breakdown

MODEL RUNTIME: 2026-09-12

METRIC COMPONENT	CLASSIFICATION	NOMINAL LEVEL	PROJECTED IMPACT	VARIANCE DELTA
Strait of Hormuz Throughput	Chokepoint Flow	20.5 Mbd	0.0 Mbd (Blocked)	-20.5 Mbd
Cape of Good Hope & Pipelines	Detour Volume	0.0 Mbd	4.2 Mbd	+4.2 Mbd
Net Global Supply Deficit	Net Deficit	0.0 Mbd	16.3 Mbd	+16.3 Mbd
VLCC Daily Charter Spot Rate	Maritime Freight	$45,000 / day	$145,000 / day	+$100,000
War-Risk Hull & Machinery Surcharge	Underwriting Premium	0.10%	1.25%	+1.15%