Strait Oil Supply Shock Simulator

@DeItaone Macro Terminal
WTI BENCHMARK $102.40
HORMUZ NORMAL FLOW 21.0 mb/d
Walter Bloomberg Alert Grounding: "WTI climbed 1% to $102.40, holding near recent highs as Middle East supply concerns persist. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has declined, while Saudi pipeline disruptions and uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine energy truce support prices."
Projected WTI Crude
$118.50
+15.7% from $102.40 base
Net Supply Deficit
3.4 mb/d
Global spare buffer exhausted
Reserve Depletion
114 Days
At current drawdown rate
Market Stress Index
High Shock
Implied Vol (OVX): 52.4
Scenario Control Deck CALIBRATED ENGINE
Strait of Hormuz Reduction 22.5%
Baseline flow ~21.0 mb/d. Direct maritime tanker slowdown.
Saudi Pipeline Outage 1.8 mb/d
East-West bypass pipeline outage & terminal bypass constraints.
Energy Truce Uncertainty 75 / 100
Geopolitical risk premium on Black Sea / Baltic tanker availability.
Global Spare Capacity Cushion 2.5 mb/d
Available non-affected emergency production buffer.
Forward 12-Month WTI Price & Global Deficit Trajectory DYNAMIC PROJECTION
Export Simulation Suite:
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