Striker Profile Shrinkage & Shot Quality Workbench

Tactical Shot & Decision Map Click pitch to record shot decision grade

Positive Grade

Neutral Grade

Negative Grade

Dashed = Pass Available

Grade Input

Better Option?

Quick Action

Sample Minutes Played (M): 480 mins

90m (Small) 900m (Half Season) 3,000m (Full Season)

Prior Weight Strength (m0): 900 mins

300m (Weak Prior) 900m (Standard League) 1,800m (Heavy Prior)

Empirical Bayes Rate Shrinkage Regression toward League Priors

Shots p90

2.67 3.75

-1.08 p90

Pos. Graded p90

1.61 2.25

-0.64 p90

Better Option %

59.0% 68.0%

-9.0%

True Rate Distribution Curve Shrunk Mean vs Reference Profile

Verified Model Proof Surface

Shrunk Shots p90: 2.67

Shrunk Pos Graded p90: 1.61

Shrunk Better Option %: 0.590

Transfer Risk Level: Moderate Sample Uncertainty