Followers are reach, not receipts.
A public follower count can include free readers and people who never subscribed. Revenue starts with the paid subset.
01
Independent scenario model
300k readers does not mean $100m ARR.
Separate followers from paying subscribers. Then model realized price, fees, churn sensitivity, and the exact paid-reader threshold behind the headline.
Grounded in the stated scenario: roughly 300k subscribers or 360k followers, a $400-$500 annual list price, and the question of whether gross ARR exceeds $100m. The public audience counts are treated as scenario inputs, not verified live data.
Make the hidden assumption visible.
The conversion rate is the hinge. A follower, free subscriber, and paid reader are three different things.
Economics output
Not over $100m
At a 10% paid conversion, the model reaches $13.50m in gross ARR.
Paid readers30,00010% of audience
Gross ARR$13.50mPaid readers × realized annual price
After listed fees$11.76m87.1% retained before other costs
Monthly equivalent$979,875Fee-adjusted annual revenue ÷ 12
Paid readers for $100m222,22374.1% of this audience
After churn sensitivity$9.41m80% revenue retained over a year
Default scenario ready
The multiplication is easy. The denominator is not.
A useful estimate keeps each uncertain input visible instead of turning a follower count into revenue by fiat.
Price
List price can differ from realized price after discounts, founding tiers, refunds, and comped access.
Fees
Gross ARR answers the headline. Fee-adjusted revenue answers what remains before taxes and operating costs.
Churn
ARR is a run-rate snapshot. Churn belongs in a separate forward retention sensitivity, not a disguised ARR subtraction.
Gross ARR
Paid readers multiplied by realized annual price. It is before platform fees, payment processing, refunds, taxes, and expenses.
Fee-adjusted revenue
Gross ARR after the fee rates entered here. It is not profit and does not include every possible cost.
Retention sensitivity
A simplified forward view applying one annual churn assumption to fee-adjusted revenue. It is a scenario, not a forecast.
Three checks before believing the headline.
Scroll through the model boundary.
Count the paying people.
The core error is multiplying every follower by the annual price. Start with total audience, then apply an explicit paid conversion rate. If the 300k figure truly means paid subscriptions, set conversion to 100% and the model will show that case.
paid readers = audience × paid conversion
Use realized price.
At $400, crossing $100m requires 250,000 paid readers. At $450, it requires 222,223. At $500, it requires 200,000. Those are paid counts, not total followers.
threshold = ceil($100,000,000 ÷ annual price)
Keep claims honest.
This calculator does not verify Burry's live subscriber mix or private revenue. It answers the economics question with transparent assumptions and exports the exact scenario so the result can be inspected.
gross ARR ≠ profit ≠ verified private revenue