Sudan-Iran Geopolitical Conflict Leverage Map

Sponsor Network & Linkages

SAF (Sudan Armed Forces)

RSF (Rapid Support Forces)

Iran (Drone Sponsor)

UAE (RSF Backer)

Red Sea Maritime Security

Peace Likelihood 18%

Conflict Intensity 82%

Backer Overlap 68%

Sponsor Influence Levers Adjust to simulate scenarios

Iran Drone Support to SAF 80%

UAE Backer Leverage to RSF 70%

Red Sea Maritime Pressure (Houthi/Iran) 75%

Coordinated Diplomatic Sanctions Pressure 20%

Strategic Status: Baseline Escalation - Unchecked Proxy Flows

Selected Actor Dossier saf

Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)

Led by Gen. Burhan, SAF receives Mohajer-6 drones and military assistance from Iran in exchange for Red Sea naval access, creating overlapping security concerns with regional actors.

Primary Sponsor

Primary Vulnerability Drone Supply Disruption

Red Sea Strategic Footprint High (Port Sudan)

Leverage Exposure 78%

Intervention Pathway Analyzer Active Pathways

Path 1: Iran-SAF Drone Supply Decoupling High Risk

Mohajer-6 drones stabilize SAF lines near Khartoum. Counter-pressuring Iranian Red Sea access points reduces SAF offensive posture.

Path 2: UAE Gold/Supply Route Interdiction Active Flow

RSF gold trade through regional hubs maintains militia payrolls. Sanctions on logistics networks unlock diplomatic leverage.

Path 3: Overlapping Red Sea Peace Alignment Conditional

Sponsors realize Sudan instability escalates broader Middle East/Red Sea maritime shipping disruptions.