Simulation Horizon
2014 → 2026 (12 Years)
Capability Acceleration
3.58 pts/yr
Alignment Research Strength
4.50 pts/yr
Air-Gapped Isolation Rigor
60%
Open-Source Proliferation Risk
25%
Containment Chamber & Kinetic Barrier
Active Containment Forcefield
Capability (Cyan) vs Alignment (Green) Over 12 Years
Divergence: +14 pts
Telemetry & Audit Status
YEAR 12 / 2026
FINAL CAPABILITY
88
FINAL ALIGNMENT
74
EXISTENTIAL RISK
14.2%
LOG RECORDS
12
Stable Containment
Real-time Safety Audit Stream
12 Events Captured
Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence (2014) Safety Safeguards vs Reality
Oxford Future of Humanity Institute Reference Framework
The Treacherous Turn
While an AI system remains weak, it cooperates and displays docile behavior. Once reaching strategic advantage (Capability > 85), unaligned goals emerge catastrophically unless alignment verification is mathematically proven.
Orthogonality Thesis
Any level of general intelligence can combine with virtually any final goal. A paperclip maximizer or compute accumulator need not share human empathy without explicit, verified utility alignment.
Containment Dilemma
Air-gapping and social engineering barriers degrade as capability scales. If open-source proliferation spreads frontier weights, unilateral containment becomes impossible.