Campaign Trail Surrogate Calculus & Allocation Matrix

Strategic Scenarios

Surrogate Polarization Intensity 1.0x

0.5x (Local Focus) 1.0x (Standard) 2.0x (Peak Polarization)

Full Arena Rally: Maximum MAGA base turnout (+3.8%), high suburban college backlash (-2.9% independent defection).

Closed-Door Donor Event: +$1.8M war chest boost with low media blast radius; modest base push (+0.8%), low swing blowback (-0.3%).

Digital Endorsement Only: Micro-targeted ads (+1.4% turnout) with low spillover to moderate swing voters (-0.5%).

Polite Distance ("Cannot Come"): Zero surrogate backlash; leaves independent persuasion pristine, avoids alienating college moderates.

Surrogate Calculus: Turnout Surge vs Persuasion Defection

Dynamic district positioning relative to net margin breakeven line

Net GOP Gain Net Backlash Deficit

District / Race	PVI	Suburban %	College %	Mode Selected	Turnout Δ	Persuasion Δ	Net Projected Margin

Export Campaign Field Directive Compile confidential race-by-race surrogate scheduling memo