Stress Parameters
Scenario Presets
75%
Wall Street's implied probability that Trump backs down on Iran escalation (‘TACO’ trade holds).
45%
Severity of Middle East proxy activity, naval seizures, and direct kinetic military alerts.
$74.50
Pre-crisis equilibrium price per barrel prior to Middle East risk premium additions.
20%
Portfolio defensive tilt in Gold, Treasuries, and Cash dampening systemic drawdown.
Systemic Impact Matrix
Brent Spike vs. Sector Shock Curve
Real-time simulation across 6 stress tranches
Brent Crude ($/bbl)
S&P 500 Drawdown (%)
Energy Sector Alpha (%)
Cross-Asset & Sector Sensitivity
Energy (XLE)
+7.32%
Refining & E&P Margin
Airlines & Transports
-6.85%
Jet Fuel Input Pressure
Defense & Aerospace
+4.10%
Military Replenishment
Gold & Haven Assets
+5.20%
Flight to Quality
10Y Treasury Yield
-18 bps
Bonds Bid / Safe Haven
VIX Volatility
24.6
Elevated Tail Hedging
Simulation Provenance & Verification
SLUG: taco-trade-failure-simulator-35
- Wall Street 'TACO' Premise: “Trump Always Caves On Iran”
- Current Operating Point: Confidence: 75% | Escalation: 45%
- Calibrated Baseline Brent: $74.50 → $92.80
- Verified S&P 500 Shock: -3.45%