Policy Package Levers
119th Congress MatrixRevert TCJA 37% rate or impose surcharges on incomes >$400k (single) / $450k (joint).
Modify $10,000 state and local tax deduction limit. Critical redline for NY/NJ/CA caucus.
Statutory rate on corporate profits (TCJA slashed from 35% to 21%).
Tax capital gains >$1M at ordinary rates and end carried interest partner treatment.
25% minimum tax on total income including unrealized capital gains for net worth >$100M.
Allow TCJA $13.6M per individual exemption to sunset back to ~$7M.
Protect and enhance Inflation Reduction Act mandatory enforcement on audits >$400k.
Fiscal Impact & Incidence
Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) Model| Income Tier | Avg. Income | Effective Rate Δ | Avg. $ Change |
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Legislative Reality Check
The 2025–2026 TCJA expiration creates a high-stakes cliff. Moderate suburban Democrats are threatening to sink any reconciliation bill that fails to raise the SALT cap, while fiscal hawks refuse corporate rates above 25% or unvetted wealth taxes.
Caucus Whip Counter
Passage Threshold: 218 House / 50 SenateDemand: SALT Cap must be raised to at least $40k. Will defect if kept at $10k.
Demand: Requires at least $1.5T in top-bracket/corporate revenue and high-wealth accountability.
Demand: Total package must be net deficit-reducing (>$1.0T) and avoid anti-competitive corporate rates >25%.
Demand: Zero margin for error in 50-50 Senate. Skeptical of novel unvetted wealth taxes without constitutionality guardrails.