⚡ Tech First-Mover vs Distribution Evaluator

Stress-test historical market cycles, picks-and-shovels saturation, and AI terminal value capture.

PRESETS:

Structural Parameters

Token Cost Deflation Rate 65%/yr

Annual decline in API compute cost for equivalent capability.

Datacenter Chip Lifespan 3.5 Yrs

Hardware amortization rate before secondary market glut.

Energy & Power Grid Bottleneck 42%

Percentage of planned datacenter MW constrained by power.

Mega-Cap OS & App Distribution 75%

Default lock-in via mobile OS, browsers, and enterprise suites.

Open-Weight & Cheap Model Share 50%

Adoption of low-cost open models (DeepSeek, Qwen, Llama).

Historical Analogy: Fast-follower distribution giants capture the majority of application margins while frontier labs bear capital depreciation.

10-Year AI Tech Stack Terminal Value Capture Regime: Distribution Wedge Dominance

Distribution Mega-Caps
$2.48T
51.2% Total Value

Silicon & Chips

$1.21T

Frontier Model Labs

$680B

Neoclouds & Fiber

$475B

Platforms & Distribution Giants (Apple, Google, MSFT) 51.2%

Distribution Moat

Hardware & Specialized Silicon (Nvidia, TSMC, ASICs) 25.0%

Picks & Shovels

Pure-Play Frontier Labs (OpenAI, Anthropic) 14.0%

Pioneer Margin Squeeze

Neoclouds & Compute Arbitrage 9.8%

Infrastructure Fiber

10-Year Value Capture Trajectory ($B) Year 1 → Year 10

● Distribution Mega-Caps ┄ Hardware & Chips ● Frontier Labs ● Neoclouds

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