Tech Wave Growth & Policy Throttle Simulator

Explore how regulatory policy, capital intensity, and labor augmentation throttle or expand General Purpose Technology (GPT) macroeconomic cycles. Benchmark Frontier AI against the Industrial Revolution, Electrification, and the Internet.

Macro Wave Benchmark

Policy & Execution Throttle

Regulatory Throttle 15%

Compliance friction, compute permits, training moratoriums, and antitrust gating. Higher values slow diffusion and raise adoption cost.

Infrastructure Capex Multiplier 2.2x

Data centers, power grids, silicon fabs, and physical transmission capital deployed per annum.

Diffusion Velocity (Bass Parameter) 0.42

Speed at which enterprise workflows and small businesses absorb generative and automated systems.

Solow Productivity Lag 4.0 Yrs

Time delay between capital installation and measurable total factor productivity (TFP) compounding.

Task Augmentation vs Displacement 65% Aug

Portion of technological change creating higher-wage complementary work versus structural labor dislocation.

Ready. Interactive timeline updated in real-time.

Peak GDP Impact

+3.8% /yr

Above historical baseline

Cumulative Surplus (30y)

$24.6 T

Total wealth creation

Inflection Year

Year 6.2

TFP takeoff milestone

Policy Opportunity Cost

-$4.1 T

Surplus forgone via friction

Frontier AI Projection (30-Year Horizon)

Current Policy Output

Unconstrained Frontier

Historical Baseline

General Purpose Technologies: Historical Throttle & Takeoff Comparison

Economists define a General Purpose Technology (GPT) by three traits: pervasive use across virtually all economic sectors, ongoing continuous technological improvement, and strong complementarities that induce new products, processes, and business architectures. As seen with steam power, electrification, and early digital telecommunications, the initial phase often exhibits the Solow Productivity Paradox—heavy capital outlays before systemic reorganization yields visible national statistics.

Wave	Key Bottleneck / Throttle	Infrastructure Horizon	Solow Lag	Long-Run Annual TFP Lift
Steam Engine (1780–1830)	Metallurgy, mine access rights, canal rights-of-way	40–50 Years	~18 Years	+0.4% / yr
Electrification (1890–1930)	Factory redesign (group drive to unit drive motors), grid franchise monopolies	30–40 Years	~12 Years	+1.4% / yr
Internet / Digital (1990–2015)	Broadband fiber buildout, spectrum auctions, enterprise software integration	15–20 Years	~7 Years	+1.8% / yr
Frontier AI (2024–2050+)	Energy interconnects, high-density compute, regulatory moratoria, licensing hurdles	10–15 Years	3–6 Years (est.)	+2.5% to +4.5% / yr (modeled)