Dominant Perceived Threat
USA (37.0%)
+22.0% lead over Russia (#2)
USA 95% Confidence Interval
[34.9%, 39.1%]
MoE: ±2.1% (Wilson Score)
Threat Concentration (HHI)
2,118
Moderate-to-High Concentration
Alliance Discord Ratio
58.7%
Threat share targeting NORAD/NATO allies
Interactive Threat Distribution & Error Whiskers
Confidence Level: 95% (Z = 1.96)
| Entity / Nation | Base % | Adjusted % | 95% CI Range | MoE (±%) | Tier Rank |
|---|
Geopolitical & Empirical Context
The Canadian public opinion distribution reflects an unprecedented divergence in traditional allied threat assessment. Despite sharing a 8,891 km border, NORAD integration, and deep bilateral trade agreements (CUSMA), Canadian respondents cite the United States (37%) as the paramount threat to global peace—more than double Russia (15%) and over six times China (6%).
This reflects shifting perceptual focus toward superpower polarization, extraterritorial sanctions, and cross-border political volatility over conventional authoritarian adversary aggression.
Statistical Formulations
Herfindahl-Hirschman Threat Index (HHI):
HHI = Σ (s_i)^2 = 37^2 + 15^2 + 15^2 + 11^2 + 11^2 + 6^2 + 5^2 = 2,118
Wilson Score 95% Confidence Interval:
p_adj = (p + z^2/(2n) ± z * sqrt((p(1-p)/n) + z^2/(4n^2))) / (1 + z^2/n)