Trade Chokepoint & Resilience Simulator

Active Scenario: 2026 Chinese Rare Earth Export Controls

Monopolist / Chokepoint

Alternative Refiners / Bypass

Emerging Domestic Mines

Industrial Consumer Hubs

Tip: Click any node to pinch or inspect route flow

Global Supply Continuity

100.0%

Nominal equilibrium

Hegemon Monopoly Leverage

94.0%

Extreme dependency

Price Wedge Inflation

+0.0%

Spot parity

Bypass & Substitution Share

18.0%

Secondary rerouting

Conway Leverage Decay Curve (16-Quarter Horizon) Simulated Quarter: Q0 (Pre-Shock)

Ed Conway Historical Precedent: The Chokepoint Paradox

In 2010 and 2026, export embargoes on heavy rare earths created acute panic in western electronics and defense industries. However, high prices immediately justified investments in Lynas (Malaysia), Mountain Pass (California), chemical recycling, and thrifting neodymium from magnet alloys.

"Rulers have wielded trade chokepoints for centuries, with mixed results. Advantages rarely last: trade is a liquid that seeks cracks, creates alternative bypasses, and eventually destroys the monopolist's pricing power." — Ed Conway, 'Trade World'

Simulation Dynamics

Chokepoint Restriction Rate 0%

Embargo severity, naval blockade, or tariff wall at primary source.

Simulate Quarters Elapsed Q0 (Immediate)

Watch capital relocation, bypass scaling, and leverage erosion over 4 years.

Third-Party Transshipment / Leakage 25%

Goods rerouting through intermediary countries (Vietnam, Mexico, Dutch traders).

Material Substitution Elasticity Medium (1.2x)

Speed at which engineers design out critical material (e.g., ferrite magnets, synthetic chemistry).

Capital Deployment Speed Normal (6 Quarters)

Time required for alternative mines, synthetic fabs, or secondary refiners to ramp full capacity.

Historical Rule of Thumb

When chokepoints pinch supply above 70%, prices surge up to 300%. But by Quarter 8–12, high returns pull new capital into alternate routes, shrinking the original hegemon's market share permanently.