US-China Trade Truce Impact Explorer
Model how an extended trade truce affects tariffs, customs revenue, consumer prices, and supply chain flows across key sectors. Adjust the truce duration, sector tariffs, and trade volumes to see immediate calculated consequences.
Calculated Impact
Status quo extension · 6 months
Sector-Level Tariff Burden & Trade Flow
Current effective rate
Truce-adjusted rate
Post-truce risk rate
Cumulative Revenue & Diversion Over Truce Period
Cumulative customs revenue
Cumulative diversion cost
Adjust controls to see impact. Changes apply instantly.
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How to use this explorer
What this tool models
This explorer calculates the economic impact of a US-China trade truce extension across 8 major trade sectors. It uses publicly reported trade values, applied tariff rates, and standard elasticity estimates to project customs revenue, consumer price effects, trade volume changes, and supply chain diversion to third countries (Vietnam, Mexico, India, Taiwan).
Key assumptions & limitations
Elasticities: Import demand elasticity -1.5 (industrial), -0.8 (consumer electronics), -1.2 (agriculture). Pass-through: 60-85% of tariff changes reach consumer prices depending on sector. Diversion: 15-30% of lost China trade redirects to alternative suppliers annually. Not modeled: Services trade, investment restrictions, non-tariff barriers, firm-level reorganization costs, or geopolitical signaling effects.
Data sources
US Census Bureau trade data (2023-2024), USTR Section 301 tariff schedules, IMF World Economic Outlook for demand baselines, academic elasticity estimates (Fajgelbaum et al. 2020, Amiti et al. 2019). All calculations run locally in your browser; no data leaves your device.
Reading the charts
Bar chart: Each sector shows three rates — the current effective tariff (teal), the truce-adjusted rate (amber), and the post-truce risk rate (red). Bar width represents annual trade volume ($B). Timeline chart: Tracks cumulative customs revenue collected (teal) versus estimated diversion costs to US importers (red) over the truce months. The gap represents net fiscal position.
Preset scenarios
Status quo: Current rates frozen for 6 months. Gradual easing: 2% quarterly reduction across sectors. Snap-back: Truce holds 3 months then rates jump to 25%+. Recession shock: Global demand drops 20% with currency depreciation.
Export & sharing
Click "Export scenario as JSON" to download a complete record of your configuration, all calculated metrics, and sector-level detail. The file includes assumptions, timestamps, and source attribution for reproducibility.