A 60% WIN RATE CAN STILL LOSE MONEY.

Parse the ledger. Charge every fee. Separate training from unseen trades. Let drawdown and hard risk limits have the final word.

Chronological trade CSV

BTC hold return

Load the ten-trade sample or paste your own cost-inclusive log.

Local evidence audit only. No exchange connection, live price, API key, order, return forecast, or financial advice.

The completed equity trace and breach evidence will appear here.

What the headline hid

FAILED RISK GATE

-TOTAL RETURN

-MAX DRAWDOWN

-DAILY BREACHES

-RISK BREACHES

PAPER-TEST DECISION

FAIL PAPER-TEST GATE

Equal win rates conceal opposite payoff quality after costs.

A failed audit means keep the system away from real capital. A passing log still cannot prove future returns, honest data, leak-free features, or exchange execution.

COST-INCLUSIVE EVIDENCE

10 parsed trades · Papa Parse 5.4.1

10PARSED TRADES

-0.50%TOTAL RETURN

3.26%MAX DRAWDOWN

-4.50 ppVERSUS BTC HOLD

TRAINING WINDOW

Win rate: 60%
Profit factor: 2.55
Net P&L: +$180

UNSEEN TEST WINDOW

Win rate: 60%
Profit factor: 0.42
Net P&L: -$230

Why 60% still fails

Training gains cover losses 2.55×; unseen gains cover only 0.42×. Equal hit rates hide an 83.57% profit-factor collapse.

Risk module verdict

1 day exceeds the 3% daily-loss cap. 2 trades exceed the 0.5% per-trade cap. The risk module must reject them.

Super generates helpful tools and automates fact-checking across the internet proactively. If you enjoyed this tool, build your own with Super and share it with a friend.