Cross-Sectional Gorge & Debris Dam Model
PHASE 1: OBSTRUCTION
Simulated Elapsed:0.0 hrs
Water Head Height:12.4 m
Reservoir Volume:1.82 M m³
Breach Notch Depth:0.0 m
Est. Peak Breach Q
12,480 m³/s
Froehlich (1995)
Time to Overtopping
4.8 hrs
Inflow rate baseline
Impounded Storage
18.5 M m³
Crest capacity
Dam Stability Factor
0.68 (Unstable)
Piping / Overtopping Risk
12.5 M m³
65 m
450 m³/s
1.8x
4.2% (2.4°)
Outburst Breach Hydrograph & Flood Wave Propagation
Downstream Catchment Analysis
Downstream Transboundary Risk Matrix Border: Km 14.2
Location / Checkpoint Distance Peak Flow Wave ETA Alert Level
Hydrological Assessment: Dam overtopping expected in 4.8 hours. The resulting breach wave is projected to exceed the Friendship Bridge design capacity by 340%, reaching Nepal border checkpoints in 36 minutes post-failure.
Screening Model Note: Calculations utilize empirical dam breach formulations (Froehlich 1995, Costa 1985) and simplified kinematic wave routing. Intended for situational awareness and emergency planning during transboundary Himalayan mass-wasting events.
Cross-Border Data Protocol: UN-OCHA / ICIMOD Disaster Framework