US Treasury Debt Issuance & Yield Curve Strategy Simulator
Bessent Macro Model
Quantifying how shifting debt maturity allocation alters sovereign clearing yields, duration risk, and Fed QT alignment
Macro Policy Framework v2.4
Strategy Presets
Bessent T-Bill Tilt
Vigilante Revolt
Balanced Maturity
QT Squeeze Match
Issuance Mix (% of Total)
T-Bills (< 1 Year)
38%
Notes (2Y - 7Y)
44%
Bonds (10Y - 30Y)
18%
Macro Environment
Annual Net Deficit ($T)
$1.90T
Fed Funds Policy Rate
4.50%
Monetary Easing Impulse
Short-term bill surge acts as shadow liquidity, easing financial conditions and offsetting Fed QT runoff.
10Y Benchmark Yield
4.12%
-28 bps vs baseline
Term Premium Δ
-24.5 bps
Supply compression
Portfolio WAM
58.4 mo
Target baseline: 72 mo
Annual Interest Outlay
-$18.2B
Net baseline delta
Sovereign Yield Curve: Baseline vs Issuance-Adjusted Clearing Rates
■ Baseline
■ Strategy Result
Tenor Clearing Impact & Supply Allocation Vector
Tenor
Class
Baseline Yield
Simulated Yield
Spread Δ
New Issuance ($B)
Reset to Defaults
Download Policy Brief (JSON)
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