US Treasury Debt Issuance & Yield Curve Strategy Simulator Bessent Macro Model

Quantifying how shifting debt maturity allocation alters sovereign clearing yields, duration risk, and Fed QT alignment
Macro Policy Framework v2.4
Strategy Presets
Issuance Mix (% of Total)
T-Bills (< 1 Year)38%
Notes (2Y - 7Y)44%
Bonds (10Y - 30Y)18%
Macro Environment
Annual Net Deficit ($T)$1.90T
Fed Funds Policy Rate4.50%
Monetary Easing Impulse
Short-term bill surge acts as shadow liquidity, easing financial conditions and offsetting Fed QT runoff.
10Y Benchmark Yield 4.12% -28 bps vs baseline
Term Premium Δ -24.5 bps Supply compression
Portfolio WAM 58.4 mo Target baseline: 72 mo
Annual Interest Outlay -$18.2B Net baseline delta
Sovereign Yield Curve: Baseline vs Issuance-Adjusted Clearing Rates ■ Baseline   ■ Strategy Result
Tenor Clearing Impact & Supply Allocation Vector
Tenor Class Baseline Yield Simulated Yield Spread Δ New Issuance ($B)
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