Policy Scenario Engine
-15 bps
22.5%
$150 B
$30 B/qtr
2Y Simulated
4.21%
-4 bps vs 4.25%
10Y Simulated
4.32%
-13 bps vs 4.45%
30Y Simulated
4.51%
-17 bps vs 4.68%
2Y10Y Curve Spread
11 bps
Bull Flattening
US Treasury Yield Curve Spline (3M to 30Y)
Baseline
Bessent Scenario
Multi-Asset Transmission Matrix
| Asset Class / Metric | Baseline | Simulated | Delta Impact | Primary Transmission Vector |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 104.20 | 103.76 | -0.42% | Rate differentials & neutral FX coordination |
| USD / JPY | 153.50 | 152.45 | -0.68% | 10Y Treasury yield compression vs JGB spread |
| EUR / USD | 1.0520 | 1.0564 | +0.42% | US short-duration rate easing spillover |
| S&P 500 Implied Reaction | 5,980.0 | 6,030.8 | +0.85% | Equity Risk Premium relief from lower term yields |
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.32% | 2.34% | +2 bps | Tariff pass-through balanced by duration easing |
Executive Transmission Bottleneck & Analysis
Long-end term premium compression driven by reduced 10Y/30Y coupon auction sizing