Treasury Parameters
Live Sensitivity
4.65%
3.80% (Mid-2024 low)
5.02% (Oct 2023 Peak)
5.20%
0.75%
0.00% (Flat)
0.75% (Current)
1.50% (High risk)
2.45%
1.80% (Sub-target)
2.45% (Consensus)
3.50% (Surge)
Historical Benchmark Scenarios
Context: As reported by @spectatorindex, US 10-year yields surged to multi-month highs near levels not seen since October 2023 (when the 10Y hit 5.02%). Higher sovereign yields mechanically transmit into mortgage costs and corporate debt repricing.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
7.35%
+270 bps spread
Monthly payment on $400k: $2,755
BBB Corporate Borrowing
6.85%
+220 bps spread
Investment grade spread cushion vs Treasuries
Equity Valuation Multiple Pressure
-11.4%
Equity P/E drag
Model duration discount impact on growth equities
10-Year Real Yield (TIPS)
2.20%
Restrictive territory
Nominal yield (4.65%) minus Inflation (2.45%)
Treasury Yield Term Structure vs Historical Benchmarks
Current Simulated
Oct 2023 High (5.02%)
Historical Baseline (4.00%)
| Financial Asset / Sector | Transmission Transmission Mechanism | Simulated Rate / Cost | October 2023 High Benchmark | Spread / Drag |
|---|