30-Yr Fixed Mortgage Est.
7.65%
+265 bps spread over 10Y benchmark
Fed Decision Probability
78% Rate Pause / 22% Hike
Implied from Fed Funds Futures & Sentiment
Borrowing Cost Impact
+1.85% vs 2023 average
Benchmark corporate & consumer loan drag
Highest Equity Pressure Sector
Real Estate & Long-Duration Tech
Discount rate expansion & cap-rate revaluation
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Model
Comparing Simulated Curve vs. Historical 2023 Average & Inversion Markers
Simulated Scenario
2023 Historical Baseline
5.00% Threshold
Sectoral Equity & Asset Shock Matrix
Sensitivity projection given 10-Yr Treasury at 5.00%
Long-Duration Tech (XLK)
HIGH PRESSURE
-3.8% Multiple Drag
High P/E multiples compress as discount rates rise with 10Y Treasury above 5%.
Real Estate / REITs (XLRE)
HIGH PRESSURE
-4.6% Asset Reval
Cap rate adjustments and surging mortgage rates (>7.6%) freeze transaction volumes.
Regional & Large Banks (KRE/XLF)
MIXED SPREAD
+0.8% Net Interest Margin
Higher asset yields boost interest margins, balanced against unrealized HTM securities losses.
Utilities (XLU)
DIVIDEND SHOCK
-3.1% Outflow Risk
Bond-proxy utility dividend yields lose relative appeal to risk-free 5% Treasury paper.
Scenario status: Yield >= 5.00% High Risk