Implied Enterprise Value (EV)
$8.05 B
+0.6% vs $8.0B Target
2026E Adjusted EBITDA
$1.68 B
Margin: 31.2%
Implied EV / EBITDA Multiple
4.80x
Linear peer range: 3.5x – 6.0x
5-Yr Cumulative Unlevered FCF
$4.92 B
Avg FCF Conversion: 64.5%
Max Streaming Retrans Royalty +$180M streaming rights fee credited to Turner
Contextual Reference: Bloomberg / Media Analysts report that Paramount or strategic PE syndicates could value WBD's linear cable network arm (Turner) around $8.0 Billion. While cord-cutting erodes the linear sub base from ~68M homes, high per-subscriber affiliate fees (TNT: ~$3.05, CNN: ~$1.15, TBS: ~$1.10) generate significant near-term cash flow.
5-Year Carveout Financial Projections ($ Millions)
Base Year: 2025E | Forecast: 2026E – 2030E
Channel Portfolio Economics & Contribution
Est. 2026E Subscribers ~65.4M
Network / Channel Est. Rate / Sub Affiliate Rev Ad Revenue Total Rev OpEx / Content Net EBITDA % of Total
Valuation Sensitivity Matrix: Sub Churn vs Exit Multiple ($ Billions)
Highlighted: Target Range ($7.5B – $8.5B)
Strategic Carveout Takeaways & Valuation Reality Check
1. The $8.0B Hurdle Rate

Achieving $8.0B requires Turner to maintain at least $1.6B–$1.7B in normalized EBITDA and trade at ~4.8x–5.0x EV/EBITDA. If sub declines accelerate past -8.5% without price escalation, EV drops toward $6.2B.

2. Post-NBA Margins vs Affiliate Leverage

Losing the NBA removes ~$1.2B in annual programming liability, temporarily bolstering cash flow. However, distributors (Charter, Comcast, DirecTV) will demand substantial per-sub fee reductions during renewal cycles.

3. Debt Capacity & LBO Feasibility

At 3.25x leverage, a buyer could raise ~$5.2B in senior secured linear cash flow debt, requiring ~$2.8B in sponsor/buyer equity. Strong FCF conversion (~60%) enables rapid 3-year deleveraging before linear terminal cliffs.