Mathematical Vig Removal & Kelly Allocation Engine
Bookmaker lines inflate implied probability above 100% to guarantee house margin (the vigorish/overround). This terminal strips the Bet365 vig by normalizing both sides to a true 100% win distribution, unlocking unvarnished expected value and Kelly staking.
Two-Way Overround Normalization
Fair Win % = Implied% / (Implied%_Fav + Implied%_Dog). Strips the typical 4.5% to 6.2% house edge baked into standard UFC 2-way moneyline markets.
Compound Parlay Math
Parlays multiply bookmaker decimal payouts while compounding edge loss. Our architect tracks both nominal bookmaker payout and vig-free joint fair win probabilities.
Kelly Criterion Staking
Suggested unit sizing: f* = (bp - q) / b where b is net fractional odds, p is true fair probability, and q = (1 - p). Quarter and Half Kelly safeguards against bankroll drawdowns.