UFC 331 Rematch Probability Simulator

Joshua Van (C) VS Alexandre Pantoja (#1) | 5-Round Flyweight Championship

Complete

Fighter A Win Probability

44.2%

Joshua Van • Champion

Fighter B Win Probability

55.8%

Alexandre Pantoja • Challenger

Momentum Swing Round

Round 4

Cardio Divergence Point

Projected Method

Decision (Unanimous)

5-Round Scorecard Model

Matter.js Striking Momentum Trajectory

Interactive Octagon

● Van (Blue Jabs/Hooks) Status: Exchange Ready ● Pantoja (Gold Clinch/Crosses)

Directly click or tap canvas to introduce impact vector

Championship Round Pacing (Rounds 4-5 Urgency) 50

Higher pacing emphasizes Van's cardio differential in deep championship minutes.

Rematch History Weight Index (Challenger Adjustment Factor) 1.15

Historical UFC rematch coefficient calibrating elite veteran adjustments (1.15 baseline).

Rematch Context	Index	Fighter A Win %	Fighter B Win %	Projected Outcome
UFC 331 Baseline (Van vs. Pantoja 2)	1.15	44.2%	55.8%	Decision (Unanimous)
Moreno vs. Figueiredo 2 (Flyweight)	1.12	58.4%	41.6%	Sub (Rear-Naked Choke)
Volkanovski vs. Holloway 2 (Featherweight)	1.08	52.1%	47.9%	Decision (Split)
Adesanya vs. Pereira 2 (Middleweight)	1.25	48.5%	51.5%	KO / TKO (Counter Right)

*Historical indices incorporate tape adaptation, tactical coaching adjustments, and flyweight 5-round pacing decay.

Download reproducible combat metrics, round scoring projections, and calibrated simulation parameters.