Initial Occupancy Rate
99.30%
Baseline
Baseline Pop:
88,200
Capacity Breach Horizon
4 Mo
Operational Limit
Usable Base Cap:
88,800
Peak Overcrowding Stress
114.2%
HIGH RISK
Double-Bunk Delta:
+1,500
24-Mo Usable Capacity
98,800
+10,000
Lead Time:
24 Mo
Prediction Market Target
34.5%
Schedule Calibration
Cap Ex Estimate:
£1,250M
Policy & Operational Inputs
MOJ Baseline
10,000
2,000
12,500
25,000
2.2%
0.0% (Flat)
3.0% (Medium)
6.0% (High Surge)
24 Months
6m (Emergency)
24m (Standard)
48m (Delayed)
+1,500
0 (None)
2,500
5,000 (Max)
98.5%
95.0% (Proactive)
98.5% (Standard)
102.0% (Disabled)
Model Parameter Logic: Base usable capacity starts at 88,800 against 88,200 initial population. Additional capacity phases in progressively across lead time. Double-bunking increases operational limits but raises safety risk score.
Operational Capacity vs Population Trajectory (36 Months)
Dynamic projection comparing operational ceiling against inmate inflow pressure
Population
Capacity
Emergency Threshold
Overcrowding Risk Level
CRITICAL OVERCROWDING
Peak Stress Index
114.2%
Prediction Market Odds
Target Met on Schedule
Implied Probability
34.5%
UK Prison Capacity & Policy Expansion Simulator Completed Analysis
Month-by-month trajectory ledger, stress metrics, and policy action logs
| Month | Inmate Population | Base Operational Cap | Effective Cap (w/ Bunking) | Occupancy % | Stress Index | Status / Policy Trigger |
|---|
Prediction Market Contract Calibration Formula
The implied market probability for delivering orders on schedule is calculated by evaluating the ratio of actual operational capacity added at Month Mtarget relative to ordered expansion, penalized exponentially by construction lead delays and overcrowding stress indices.
P(Success) = Clamp[ 100 * (1 / (1 + exp( 0.18 * (LeadMonths - 18) ))) * (1 - Max(0, PeakStress - 100)/100)^0.8, 2.5%, 97.5% ]
Baseline Target Lead:
18-24 Months
Sensitivity Coefficient:
0.18 Exponential
Stress Penalty Weight:
0.8 Exponential