UK Settlement Sanctions Economic Impact Tracker

Policy Simulation Levers

Sanctions Package Tier moderate

Import Restrictions on Settlement Goods 18.5%

U.S. Warning Severity & Retaliation Signal High (7/10)

UK-Israel Bilateral Trade Base (£bn) £7.40 bn

Financial & Banking Curbs Active State-Level U.S. Counter-Tariffs (e.g. FL/TX) Secondary Procurement Restrictions

Projected Trade Delta -12.8% Net £0.95bn annualized shift

Economic Impact Score 74.2 0 (Negligible) - 100 (Severe)

Diplomatic Friction Index 8.6 Bilateral tension scale / 10.0

U.S. Retaliation Risk Elevated Calculated Successful Simulation

Projected Trade Shock & Friction Trajectory (18-Month Outlook) D3 Multi-Vector Model

Automated Geopolitical Executive Brief Policy Status: Active

UK restrictions of 18.5% on settlement agricultural and manufacturing products, compounded by active financial measures, trigger an estimated trade contraction of -12.8%. Diplomatic friction sits elevated at 8.6/10 following firm warnings from U.S. Ambassadorial directives and prospective state-level legislative pushback.

Source Grounding: Reporting via CNBC, UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office statements, and U.S. diplomatic responses regarding settlement trade bans and bilateral commercial fallout.