Ukraine Defense & Fiscal Gap Simulator

Scenario Parameters

International Aid ($B / mo) $1.50B

$0.0B (Aid Halt)$2.0B$4.0B (Surge)

Domestic Defense Budget ($B / mo) $1.20B

$0.5B (Strain)$1.5B$2.5B (War Tax)

Air Defense Interception Efficiency 68%

30% (Severe)65%95% (Iron Dome Level)

Target Budget Gap Horizon ($B) $27.0B

$15.0B$27.0B (WP Baseline)$40.0B

Baseline Defense Burn Rate: $3.55B / month fixed operational demand required to maintain frontline resilience against ongoing Russian air and ground offensives.

Projected Monthly Deficit $0.85B Net unbacked burn / mo

Runway to Depletion 31.8 mo Against $27.0B gap ceiling

Air Pressure Score High 68% intercept rate

Sustainability Status Vulnerable Deficit High attrition exposure

36-Month Cumulative Deficit Trajectory vs $27B Gap Ceiling

Cumulative Deficit

Monthly Deficit Rate

$27B Gap Ceiling

Intelligence Briefing Summary

Under the baseline trajectory reflecting The Washington Post analysis, Ukraine absorbs an unfinanced defense deficit of $0.85B/month with an air defense interception efficiency of 68%. At current domestic revenue ($1.20B/mo) and international contributions ($1.50B/mo), the $27.0B fiscal resilience threshold reaches depletion in 31.8 months under High Russian air power pressure.

Model Verification Status Validated Simulation

Interception Margin 68% (High Pressure)

Fiscal Depletion Horizon 31.8 Months

Deficit Runway Vulnerable Deficit