Fiscal Payment Simulator — $5,000 Conditional Payment Analysis

Scenario

Select a preset or customize parameters below. The payment triggers only if Republicans control both chambers.

Adjust inputs to model the fiscal impact. Changes update instantly.

Eligible Recipients (millions)

258M

Payment Amount ($)

$5,000

Republican Control Probability

45%

Current Deficit ($B)

$1,800B

GDP ($T)

$27.4T

Interest Rate on Debt (%)

4.25%

Administrative Overhead (%)

1.5%

Economic Multiplier

0.8x

Phase-in Years

1 year

Annual cost breakdown. Bars show nominal cost; expected value weights by control probability.

Gross Annual Cost$1.29TPayment × recipients

Admin Overhead$19.4BGross × overhead rate

Annual Interest Cost$54.9BGross × interest rate

Expected Annual Cost$598BGross × probability

Deficit Increase+33%Expected / current deficit

Debt-to-GDP Impact+4.7ppCumulative over 10 years

Per Capita Cost$1,780Expected cost / 335M

Stimulus Effect (GDP)+0.38%Expected × multiplier / GDP

Download the current scenario as JSON or copy a shareable link.