Bilateral Policy Levers
Live Calibrated Model
Diplomatic Scenarios
Proposed US Tariff Rate
10.0%
Universal levy applied to bilateral non-exempt imports (0% free trade to 25% max tariff).
Energy Integration Index
75%
Cross-border pipeline, hydro power, and critical mineral export reciprocity.
Automotive Rules of Origin
70%
Required North American regional value content for duty-free automotive trade.
Border Security & Customs Index
80%
Fentanyl interception, pre-clearance harmonization, and cargo screening speed.
Political Urgency & White House Priority
85%
Presidential willingness to sign early executive order or interim pact.
Report exported & state saved.
Deal Probability
87.4%
Confidence: High
Projected Timeline
14 Days
"Fairly Soon" window
Negotiation Status
Optimistic Deal Path
Bilateral trajectory
Market Sentiment
Bullish
CAD / Equity index bias
Canada GDP Impact
+0.42%
Net annualized shift
US GDP Impact
+0.18%
Supply chain friction impact
Accord Probability Trajectory (60 Days)
Target: 87.4%
Sector Resilience Breakdown
Trade Friction Index
Policy & Trade Impact Assessment
Strong alignment on critical energy supplies and mutual border enforcement softens the blow of proposed universal baseline tariffs. High executive motivation supports a rapid bilateral breakthrough within approximately two weeks, preventing retaliatory supply chain shocks across the Great Lakes manufacturing corridor.