Macro Assumptions
Fed Rate Assumption
5.25%
Material Cost Index (Base 100)
104.2
Residential Spending Shift
-12.8%
Manufacturing Spending Shift
-8.5%
Public Infrastructure Growth
+3.2%
Scenario Presets
Composite Change
-5.6%
Vulnerability Index
78.4
Residential Health
Critical Low
Mfg Momentum
Cooling
Total Index (2023=100)
91.4
Sector Spending Velocity: 2023 Baseline vs Adjusted Simulation
Billions USD (Annualized Rate)
Sector Sensitivity & Vulnerability Breakdown
| Sector Segment | 2023 Base ($B) | Simulated ($B) | Net Shift | Sensitivity Driver | Risk Status |
|---|
MACRO DESK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
U.S. construction spending exhibits a composite trajectory of -5.6% relative to the 2023 baseline, heavily burdened by acute retrenchment in Residential (-12.8%) and Manufacturing (-8.5%). Tight financing environments (5.25% Fed baseline) paired with elevated materials costs (104.2 index) compound developer holding costs, while public infrastructure (+3.2%) provides only modest offset against broader private project deferrals.