Macro Scenario Presets
Current baseline pricing with roll-over yields benchmarked at 4.25% 10Y equivalent.
Refinance & Rate Shocks
+0 bps
New Refinancing Yield (10Y Equiv.)
4.25%
Marginal auction yield for replacement debt
Short-Term T-Bill Rate
4.50%
Yield for 4w-52w debt rolled continuously
Macroeconomic Trajectory
Annual Primary Deficit
$1.65 T
Non-interest net borrowing per fiscal year
Nominal GDP Growth
4.1%
Real GDP + Inflation expansion rate
Federal Receipts / GDP Ratio
17.5%
Historical revenue baseline vs GDP ($29.6T baseline)
Annual Gross Interest Service
$1,336.7 B
Baseline 3.35% weighted coupon
Next 12M Refinance Cliff
$8.58 T
27.0% of marketable debt maturing
Post-Roll Weighted Rate
3.56%
+21 bps shift across portfolio
Interest % of Fed Revenue
25.8%
Tax revenue absorbed by debt service
Gross Debt Composition Breakdown ($39.9T Total)
Marketable ($31.8T) vs Intragovernmental ($8.1T) tranches
Maturity Rollover Schedule & Refinance Cliff
Principal maturing annually requiring reissue at prevailing yields
10-Year Annual Interest Outlay Trajectory ($ Billions)
Simulated path under current refinance rate vs baseline rate environment
Debt Structure Audit & Duration Profile
Total Gross Debt: $39.90 Trillion
| Tranche Category | Type | Outstanding | Share | Avg Maturity | Baseline Coupon | Projected Coupon (Post-Roll) | Est. Annual Service |
|---|