US Murder Rate Historical & Forecast Evidence Map

FBI Historical Data (1960–Present) vs 2026 Analyst Forecast & Polymarket Probabilities
Source: @Polymarket
Historical Trajectory & 2026 Projection
Loading historical analysis...
Scenario Modeler
3.80
$0.62
340.5
Record Low State
Is Record Low
-13.6% vs 2014 Low
Total Projected Homicides
12,939
Countrywide Homicides
Implied Market Prob.
62.0%
Contract Pricing Implied
Expected Market ROI
+61.3%
If Record Low Hits
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