National Debt (Starting)
$36.2 T
Current Total Outstanding Debt
Annual Revenue
$4.90 T
17.2% of GDP
Annual Spending
$6.90 T
24.2% of GDP
Annual Deficit / Surplus
-$2.00 T
Annual Deficit
30-Yr Debt-to-GDP
168.4%
Projected Debt: $118.2 T
Federal Budget Flow Sandbox (Annual Trillions)
Real-time stream balance
Fiscal Policy & Macro Levers
Federal Revenues (Tax Receipts)
$4.90 T
Income, Corporate, Excise, Payroll taxes
+0% vs Baseline
Mandatory Outlays (Entitlements)
$4.10 T
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans
+0% vs Baseline
Discretionary Outlays
$1.90 T
Defense ($0.9T), Education, Infrastructure, Science
+0% vs Baseline
Effective Interest Rate on Debt
3.80%
Net Interest Outlay: $0.90 T
Refinancing rate driver
Annual Real GDP Growth
2.10%
Baseline GDP: $28.50 T
Long-term expansion rate
30-Year Debt Trajectory Projections (2026 - 2056)
━ Custom Scenario
┅ Baseline Path
ELI5 Civics: Why Politicians Face Electoral Friction (The Political Incentive Map)
Structural Reform Resistance
Why doesn't Congress just "fix" the debt? Balancing the budget requires specific trade-offs that immediately penalize voting blocs or key industries. Here is why every lever triggers electoral backlash:
Mandatory Reform
Entitlements
Social Security and Medicare make up over 60% of primary spending. Beneficiaries are the highest-turnout voter demographic (ages 65+).
Political Risk: Any reduction in growth rates or benefit eligibility leads to immediate senior voter backlash and primary election challenges.
Discretionary Cuts
Defense & Domestic
Discretionary spending funds the military, highways, national parks, federal courts, and research grants.
Political Risk: Cutting defense triggers national security criticism; cutting domestic programs harms infrastructure, local jobs, and education in specific congressional districts.
Tax Revenue Hikes
Taxpayers & Business
Raising income, corporate, or payroll taxes brings in revenue to offset deficits.
Political Risk: Higher tax rates prompt corporate lobby resistance, capital flight fears, and sharp pushback from working voters sensitive to take-home pay.
Net Interest Trap
Passive compounding
Unlike other spending, interest payments cannot be cut by legislation. They are a legal obligation to bondholders.
Political Risk: High debt forces interest outlays to crowd out active legislative priorities, creating a compounding cycle without voter payoff.
Proof Surface Target: Baseline Mode Active
Calculated Deficit: -$2.00T
30Y Debt-to-GDP: 168.4%