The Athletic • Analytics Desk
U.S. Open Semifinal Tactical Analysis

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: U.S. Open Tactical Workbench

Straight Sets 6-3, 6-2 Winner: Aryna Sabalenka (4th Consecutive U.S. Open Final) Coverage: NYT Sports / The Athletic Semifinal Breakdown

Rally-by-Rally Momentum Timeline Click points or scrub to inspect

Selected Rally Rally #1
Point Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Shot Classification Forehand Winner
Ball Velocity 104 mph
Momentum Rating 85 / 100

Key Shot Velocity Distribution

Sabalenka 1st
118 mph
Sabalenka FH
104 mph
Sabalenka Volley
92 mph
Pegula Top Serve
104 mph
Pegula Backhand
78 mph
Pegula Neutral
65 mph

Tactical Semifinal Breakdown

  • Power Asymmetry: Sabalenka posted 34 winners against Pegula's 14, dictating 74% of baseline exchanges over 4 shots.
  • Break Point Ruthlessness: Converting 5 of 7 opportunities (71.4%) eliminated Pegula's counter-punching recovery windows.
  • Pegula's Resilience: Pegula secured 1 service break on 4 attempts, but faced intense second-serve pressure throughout.
  • Fourth Final Streak: Sabalenka extends her dominance at Flushing Meadows, locking in back-to-back final appearances.
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