US-Saudi F-35 Arms Deal Strategic Balance & Technology Transfer Simulator

Export Covenants & Safeguards F-35A / F-35B

Procurement Airframe Count 50 Jets

Total Lockheed Martin 5th-gen airframes cleared for Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF).

Qualitative Military Edge (QME) Safeguards 75.0%

Statutory guarantee to preserve Israeli regional air superiority via radar offset & electronic veto.

Tech Transfer Restriction 60.0%

Covenants on mission data files (MDF), source code autonomy, and indigenous maintenance depot rights.

Regional Deterrence Factor 82.5%

Counterweight strength against Iranian anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) and ballistic missile assets.

Regional Air Superiority & Risk Radar Live Multi-Axis Geometry

Simulated Deal Envelope

QME Threshold Limit

Scenario Package	Airframes	QME Safeguard	Deterrence Index	Risk Score	Status

Source Alignment: Reflects POLITICO's reporting on the historic White House agreement clearing 5th-generation stealth aircraft for Riyadh while calibrating Congressional QME covenants and sensitive defense avionics safeguards.

Calculated Strategic Posture Verified Production State

Strategic Deterrence Index

88.4

Composite Gulf deterrence capacity vs. adversary air defense & missile networks.

Proliferation Risk Score

42.1

Vulnerability to reverse-engineering, secondary tech leakage, or uncoordinated deployment.

QME Compliance Rating

Compliant (Guarded)

US legal mandate (P.L. 110-429) verifying Israeli qualitative military superiority remains uncompromised.

Strategic Balance Status

Maintained with Covenants

Equilibrium synthesis balancing regional containment with diplomatic and export controls.

Analytical Audit Provenance:

Deterrence: (0.65×Det) + (0.35×Jets) + (0.15×QME) + (0.10×Tech)
Risk: (0.45×Jets) + 0.38×(100-Tech) + 0.176×(100-QME)

Executive Defense Policy Assessment Brief