Dynamic OFAC Sanctions Scenario Engine
Presets:
License Regime
GL 41 CARVE-OUTS
Governs Treasury legal authority, maritime tankers, and escrow banking.
24-Month Western CapEx Inflow
$1.20 Billion
Estimated private and multinational capital deployed into upgraders and diluent.
$0.0B (Sanction freeze)
$4.0B (Massive recovery)
Benchmark Brent Crude
$75.00 / bbl
Base reference price for heavy crude netbacks and haircut calculations.
$50/bbl
$110/bbl
Projected 24mo Output
945,000 bpd
+95,000 bpd vs baseline
Merey 16 Heavy Discount
-$19.50/bbl
USGC direct off-take enabled
Tanker Flow: US Gulf Coast
230,000 bpd
24% total volume
Shadow Fleet / China Intermediaries
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