FT Investigative Intelligence • Energy, Commodities & Geopolitics
Confidential Surveillance • Source-Verified Workbench
Updated Q1 2026 / OFAC Tracking Hub
Brent Benchmark: $74.20/bbl
Merey 16 Spot Discount: -$21.50/bbl
PDVSA Output (Est.): 880,000 bpd
Active OFAC Licenses: GL 41 (Chevron) & Bespoke
Pipeline Negotiations: 9 Entities Monitored

Venezuela Oil Concessions & Sanctions Deal Tracker

Dissecting the high-stakes race between US energy syndicates, Trump-linked dealmakers, European majors, and PDVSA ad-hoc boards to negotiate upstream concessions, diluent-swap contracts, and debt-for-oil restructurings across the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo reserves.

Dynamic OFAC Sanctions Scenario Engine
Presets:
License Regime GL 41 CARVE-OUTS

Governs Treasury legal authority, maritime tankers, and escrow banking.

24-Month Western CapEx Inflow $1.20 Billion

Estimated private and multinational capital deployed into upgraders and diluent.

$0.0B (Sanction freeze) $4.0B (Massive recovery)
Benchmark Brent Crude $75.00 / bbl

Base reference price for heavy crude netbacks and haircut calculations.

$50/bbl $110/bbl
Projected 24mo Output 945,000 bpd +95,000 bpd vs baseline
Merey 16 Heavy Discount -$19.50/bbl USGC direct off-take enabled
Tanker Flow: US Gulf Coast 230,000 bpd 24% total volume
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