Strategic Levers
Real-time Calibration
US Sanctions Relief
65%
Oil Licensing Flexibility
70%
Military Amnesty Guarantees
80%
Electoral Oversight Stringency
75%
Opposition Coalition Unity
85%
Regional Diplomatic Alignment
60%
Current Equilibrium Regime
Negotiated Democratic Transition (High Momentum)
Cohesive opposition combined with credible military exit guarantees creates self-reinforcing transition momentum.
Transition Prob.
74%
Military Loyalty
0.34
Illicit Cashflow
0.28
Defection Pressure
0.79
Phase Space: Loyalty vs Defection
Institutional Leverage Forces
Primary Structural Bottleneck:
Judicial Reform & Security Guarantees
Based on institutional political-economy mechanics reported by The Economist.