US Visa Bond Expansion Economic & Travel Simulator

Policy Presets:

Quantifying the US Travel Association's economic warning on expanding cash visa bonds ($5,000–$15,000 collateral) for foreign tourist & business travelers from designated risk nations. Model inbound volume drop-off, hospitality revenue loss, and collateral collection.

Policy & Risk Inputs

$10,000
Mandatory collateral required per visa applicant.
35%
Share of designated inbound travelers subject to bond requirement.
4.5%
Historical overstay percentage of target risk nations.
$4,200
Direct US hospitality, airline, and local spending per trip.
$250
Non-refundable administrative fee per traveler application.
Visitor Drop-off
321,300
-26.8% volume retention drop
Lost US Travel Revenue
$1.35B
Direct hospitality & airline loss
Collateral Yield / Forfeiture
$177.9M
Forgone overstay bonds retained
Net Direct US Economy Impact
-$1.17B
Revenue lost vs collateral yield

Economic Balance: Collateral Collected vs. Lost Hospitality Revenue

Baseline Scenario ($10,000 Bond)

Traveler Demand Sensitivity Curve Across Bond Tiers ($5k - $15k)

Detailed Policy Impact Breakdown

Metric Category Baseline Model Simulated Expansion Net Policy Delta
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