Vistry Trade Credit Insurance Cut Supply Chain Risk Simulator UK Construction Risk

Quantifying liquidity shock, unhedged exposure & trade credit contagion across Tier-1/2 contractors
Scenario Presets:
Tiered Contagion Map Dynamic Cytoscape Network
Main Housebuilder (Vistry)
Tier-1 Materials Suppliers
Tier-2 Trade Contractors
Credit Insurer Cover
Working Capital & Liquidity Dashboard Live Calculation
Unhedged Bad Debt Risk
£3,750,000
75.0% of total receivables exposed
Working Capital Deficit Gap
£924,658
Liquidity needed under 90D terms
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
101 Days
+11 days extended collection risk
Sub-Contractor Cash Runway
1.4 Months
Insolvency buffer at current burn

Risk Assessment Summary

With credit cover reduced to 25% and housebuilder payment terms stretched to 90 days, Tier-1 materials suppliers absorb £3,750,000 in unhedged receivables. This credit shock propagates downstream to Tier-2 sub-contractors, creating a liquidity squeeze requiring emergency working capital facilities.

Verified Risk Model State
Vistry Trade Credit Insurance Cut Risk Model Active
ID: VSTRY-48-OK
Countermeasure Scenario Comparison Matrix
Supply Chain Tier Contract Exposure (£) Insured Receivables (£) Unhedged Credit Exposure (£) Working Capital Gap (£) Insolvency Risk Level
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