OBSERVATORY LIVE

Volcanic Unrest Multi-Signal Forecast Simulator

2D Subsurface Cross-Section Depth: 6.5 km
Drag magma depth or click chamber to interact
Magma Overpressure 18 MPa
Intrusion Depth 6.5 km
Conduit Permeability Fractured
Volatile Content 3.4 wt%
Real-Time Sensor Streams ● SYNCHRONIZED
Seismic Swarm Rate
142
b-value: 1.08 (VT shear)
Radial Flank Tilt
48.5 µrad
GPS Uplift: +34 mm
SO₂ Gas Flux
1,850 t/d
CO₂/SO₂ ratio: 4.2
Hydrothermal Thermal
34 MW
Cap Stress: Moderate
Multi-Signal Decoupling Insight
The "Countdown" Myth: Earthquakes alone do not equal an eruption. If conduit pathways are open and gas freely vents, huge earthquake swarms often stall harmlessly. Conversely, a deadly sealed volcano may show zero gas emissions while building fatal phreatic pressure.
Bayesian Event-Tree Forecast P(Erupt): 38.5%
1. Quiet Intrusion Stall 32.0%
2. Open Hydrothermal Venting 29.5%
3. Hydrothermal Phreatic Blast 18.5%
4. Explosive Magmatic Eruption 20.0%
Active Observational Assessment
Stalled Shallow Intrusion with Hydrothermal Venting
Seismic rate is elevated but hypocenters remain clustered at 4km with stable b-value; open SO2 venting indicates unobstructed degassing pathways, mitigating explosive overpressurization unless hydrothermal conduit capping occurs.
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