Weather Market Hedge Simulator | Commercial Risk Workbench

Business & Contract Risk Config

Preset Profile: 28wishes LA Ice Cream

Baseline Daily Revenue ($): $3,500

Weather Trigger Type:

Trigger Strike Temp (°F): 70°F

Revenue Drop Under Trigger (%): 20%

Kalshi Contract Cost (¢ / contract): 32¢

Hedge Contracts Purchased: 700

Season Simulation Days: 30 days

⚡ Realized Daily Weather Scrubber TRIGGERED: PAYOUT ACTIVE

Realized Temp: 65°F

Daily Revenue

$2,800

Contract Payout

+$700

Hedge Cost/Day

-$224

Net Hedged Cash

$3,276

Payoff Profile vs. Temperature Range ■ Unhedged | ■ Hedged Cash Flow

Season 30-Day Risk & Downside Metrics

Downside Loss Reduction

66.5%

Total Season Hedge Cost

$6,720

Protected Floor / Day

$3,276

Hedge Efficiency Ratio

2.12x

Contract Settlement Mechanics Ledger

Condition	Loss / Trigger Day	Binary Contract Settlement	Daily Net Protection
Adverse Weather Day	-$700	+$700 ($1.00/contract)	+$476 ($3,276 total)
Normal Weather Day	$0 (Full $3,500 sales)	$0 (Expires $0.00)	-$224 cost ($3,276 total)